On the Impact of Future Land Use Assumptions on Risk Analysis for Superfund Sites.

In this paper, assumptions regarding future land use as a key uncertainty is considered and its impact on risk analysis for contaminated sites is assessed. Risks are assessed for two land use scenarios (current-use industrial and future-use residential) using probabilistic models that incorporate uncertainty and variability in the exposure parameters. Residual risks are calculated for both industrial and residential cleanup standards. A Superfund site in northern California is considered. In general, for the unremediated case, the future-use residential scenarios produce larger risks (1 to 3 orders of magnitude) than current- (continued) use industrial scenarios. For the Superfund site studied, the residual risks calculated for the remedy selected was not sufficiently protective of future-use residents in that it did not meet .S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk goals, but was protective of current-use workers, even though the cleanup criteria were based on residential use. Alternative risk management practices, such as deed restrictions, can be used in such cases.